Saturday, September 6, 2008

American exceptionalism

'American exceptionalism' is a term coined by Alexis de Tocqueville in his Democracy in America.
 
De Tocqueville was a Frenchman who traveled the US in the 1830s, and was impressed by its equitable society (there weren't many, if any, democracies in the world at that time).
 
American exceptionalism referred to the belief that the US was different, perhaps superior, to other countries, because of its history, its geography, its politics, its culture, its resources and its resourcefulness, etc.
 
American exceptionalism is not just an academic idea; even ordinary Americans believe it. However, at no time has it intersected with the history of race in America. To put it another way, American exceptionalism is a 'White' belief. Arguably, for much of the white American community, it is an idea that has evolved because of them, and that can develop only with the 'Whites' — but not with a 'Black', even one as "exceptional" as Obama.
 
At a baser level, race evokes a dislike and/or visceral fear in many white Americans. The latest The New York Review of Books has an article, "Obama: The Price of Being Black", which mentions several factors at work against Obama. The new requirement in some states that voters carry government issued photo-ID works against African-Americans. That some states will put a 'civil rights initiative' on the ballot, reminds many voters of the race of the candidates.
 
Then there is the "Bradley effect": in 1982, Tom Bradley led all polls in his race to be Los Angeles mayor. He lost. In 1989, David Dinkins ran for New York mayor, and led polls by 18 points; he won by two. The same year, Douglas Wilder was projected to win the race for Governor of Virginia by nine points; he won by half a point. When it comes to polls, respondents seem to answer questions of race more liberally than how they would vote. Going into the conventions, most polls had Obama and McCain running neck-and-neck.
 
Logically, electing Obama would only prove American exceptionalism in its truer sense, and not in its strict 'Anglo-Saxon' sense.
 
But 9/11 proved that for the 'City on the Hill' (the metaphor for America by its Puritan settlers), the "barbarians are at the gates". As November 4 approaches, if Obama continues to rely on his rock star magnetism rather than his wits, fear may very well overtake the yearning for change in America.
 
Obama might even lose. And if he does, it would mark the beginning of the end of American exceptionalism.


 
This article is from an op-ed piece "It's still in black and white" in the 06 Sep 2008 edition of The New Indian Express. The writer, Aditya Sinha, is its Editor-in Chief and is based in Chennai, India. I have lightly edited it and provided hyperlinks.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Paradise on Earth

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The Mughal Emperor Jehangir (father of Shah Jahan, who built the Taj Mahal in memory of his beloved wife Mumtaz Mahal), wrote this couplet in Persian about Kashmir: If there is Paradise on Earth; It is this, It is this, It is this.





I visited the Vale (of Kashmir), as it is called, when I was 21. I could not agree with Jehangir more; Srinagar, Gulmarg, Pahalgam and the other places I visited there are still very pleasently memorable. I had promised to myself then that one day I will bring my future wife and our children back to see the splendid panorama. But it was not to be.





The actual history of Kashmir is long, convoluted and controversial. In a nutshell, it the province of Jammu & Kashmir was under the direct rule of a Hindu maharajah, Hari Singh. During the years of the Raj, it existed as an independent entity and paid an annual 'fee' for remaining so to the British. When independence was granted in August 1947, and India was divided into India and Pakistan, Hari Singh chose to remain independent, rather than join either of the successor states, which was his option.

However, a short time after the formation of the two nations, irregulars from Pakistan (next door) raided the Vale in an attempt to annex it to Pakistan. Within a matter of days, Hari Singh had agreed to become a part of India, and Indian troops were landing at Srinagar airport. This was the start of the first Indo-Pakistan war, which had been by now joined by the regular Pakistani Army units.





Ironically, during this first year post-independence, the armies in both countries were still under British command, and the war ended in a stalemate when India's first Prime Minister, Nehru, appealed to the UN. A cease-fire was instituted and a 'Line of Control' established at a point where the Indian Army was able to push the Pakistani forces back.


There were some contradictions . The alleged basis of the partition of India was religious; it was the division on a country into a Muslim Pakistan and a predominantly (82%) Hindu India. Nevertheless, after Partition, India still was the most populous Muslim country in the world (This title has since been taken over by Indonesia, about a decade ago).  Kashmir was (and is) the only state in the Indian Union with a Muslim-majority population. This was the casus belli for Pakistan: why should a Muslim-majority region be a part of a predominantly Hindu (though secular per its Constitution) India? The Pakistanis ignored the fact that Kashmiris wished to stay independent.




Unknown to India, in the region of Askai Chin, adjacent to Tibet, China built the National Highway 219, connecting Tibet and Xinjiang. This was the basis of the Sino-Indian war of 1962, because India considered Askai Chin to be its territory. It has been under overt Chinese  control since. Aksai Chin was historically part of the Himalayan Kingdom of Ladakh until Ladakh was annexed from the rule of the local Namgyal dynasty by the Dogras and the princely state of Kashmir in the 19th century. When Hari Singh (a Dogra) acceded to India, All of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh (including Askai Chin) legally became a part of India.

In 1965, Pakistan waged another war against India in an attempt to annex Kashmir. Though India had just lost its first and only war with China over territorial disputes, it defeated Pakistan soundly. India wanted to be a status quo state; Pakistan a revisionist one.





So at present, half of the entire State is administed by India, one-third by Pakistan, and the remainder by China. Surrounded by these three countries, it is rather impossible for it to stay independent, as it originally wished.


In fact, this state comprises of three regions. Jammu is predominantly Hindu (66%, 30% Muslim) and Ladakh about half Buddhist (50%, 46% Muslim). It is only the Vale of Kashmir that has a majority of Muslims (95%, 4% Hindu), and it alone has been the bone of contention between the two countries. However, if you ask a Kashmiri on the street, he will still like to be independent, but his next choice will be joining Pakistan, rather than India. No so in either Jammu or Ladakh; they'd like stay with India than be independent or go over to Pakistan.





When Maharajah Hari Singh acceded to India, he esured that his province enjoy a special status in the Union, unlike the rest of the states. This was promised, and under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, the Union Constitution was extended to the State with some exceptions and modifications. For example, a non-Kashmiri cannot own land in that state, though a Kashmiri can hold property in any other part of the country. In addition, the state receives money from the Central government in excess of any other state on a per-capita basis. For instance, it received about eight times in funds as compared to another state, Bihar, in 2007.

Nehru was himself a Kashmiri, and he knew the feelings and aspirations of Kashmiris well. During 50s and early 60s, the whole country of India was coming into being and starting anew, and it was a rather uneventful period in Kashmir's history. It had the first free elections and voted in its own, Sheikh Abdullah (aka the Lion of Kashmir).




With the death of Nehru in 1964 and the rise of his daughter Indira Gandhi (no relation to the Mahatma), things began to change. Indira was not, like her father, a statesman; she believed in realpolitiks, and was sly, calculating and sought vengeance. During the next decade, she put the Sheikh in jail, poisioned the politics of the state and installed a government of her own party (the Congress) after elections that were corrupt and irregular.

This led to the formation of JKLF, the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, in 1977. Its members were moderate, often scholars, who wanted to raise the issue of more sovereignty of their State and felt that the promises of the Article 370 were not implemented in full. Their protests were non-violent in the beginning, but soon led to aggression.




Pakistan was happy with this inbred agitation, though it was not particularly happy with JKLF because they did not want Kashmir to be a part of either Pakistan or India and had declared their movement as non-religious. Pakistan wanted to foment trouble on religious lines, and started to widen this existing fault-line by recruiting, training and funding outfits that would act against India. Still, until the end of the 1980s, all the trouble in Kashmir was by disaffected Kashmiris, and the disturbance was moderate in scale.





The year 1989 proved to provide a big bonanza for Pakistan. The Afghan war has just ended with the withdrawal of Soviet forces, and there were hundreds of soldiers-of-fortune suddenly unemployed. The ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), the MI-6 of Pakistan, was only too happy to oblige. Suddenly, the home-grown movement was converted into a big-scale operation of terrorism that was supported in mechanics and logistics by the Pakistani Armed Forces. Of course, there were Kashmiris in the ranks, but the whole process now had a definite religious flavor and fervor.



 
It suited Pakistan for several reasons. Firstly, having been defeated in the wars of 1965 and 1971 by India, it provided a sweet revenge. This was especially sweet because in 1971, India had helped East Pakistan secede from the West and become Bangladesh. Secondly, it knew it would not be able to wrest Kashmir out of India's control by regular military means, because India's was a more powerful military. This slow-bleed of the Indian Armed Forces suited it well, and kept Indians occupied and unable to create any other trouble for Pakistan, or so their thinking went. Thirdly, this provided a raison d'etre for its Armed Forces, which were becoming important players in the political landscape of Pakistan.




India had no option but to react militarily. Soon, the Vale of Kashmir was turned into a police state. This further exacerbated the violence, and the viscious circle continues to the present. As is true with any police state, there were human rights violations and other excesses by the Indian Army, which are no excuse its actions being a result of the terrorists trying, and succeeding, to exact a toll on them.
This violence is rather limited to the Vale of Kashmir, though there are occasional episodes in Jammu as well. If truth be told, Pakistanis will be happy to annex just the Vale; they are not interested in Jammu or Ladakh. In fact, there has been increasing sentiment in the Vale to be a part of Pakistan.


The Indian State has several dilemmas about the status of Kashmir. It is, by its Constitution, a secular State, and where everyone stands equal regardless of caste, creed, class or religion. How could it allow Kashmiris to be treated differently, though they have to because of Article 370? How could it let the Vale secede? India has prided itself on being a secular democracy, and this detachment would be a testament to the facts otherwise. It is also a question of pride; how can India let any part of its territory secede? In addition, it will open the door to other regions clamoring for autonomy. This is quite a possibility, as India is as variegated as Europe with regions only a few hundred miles apart having different cultures, languages and cuisines.

On the other hand, Indians are tired of the conflict. The Indo-Pakistani relations that held center-stage in the 20th century are becoming increasingly irrelevant. India is rising to become a world economic power, while Pakistan is slipping into failure. The middle-class is growing in India, and its worries and priorities are changing. India wants to look forward to attaining a place on the world stage and is not interested in looking back at the issues that it feels shackle it to the past. It also has to deal with increasing terrorist threats in the rest of the country.

There has been as growing sentiment in India is to let the Vale of Kashmir go. It doesn't care if it remains independent or becomes a part of Pakistan. As far as Indians are concerned, no one in their right mind would want to be a part of that country in 2008. If Kashmiris want it, Godspeed.




It seems that I may visit Srinagar with a Pakistani visa. I won't mind as long as Pakistan becomes a safe and stable nation. But that may not happen in my lifetime and, alas, I may not be able to keep my promise.


Grow up

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The Democratic Convention starts tomorrow in Denver. It could end up being  Greek tragedy, thanks to supporters of HRC. The catharsis that Hillary spoke of could very well have the effect of massive puking and crapping all over the place.

And Democrats may do what they do best: Snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

As this article in Politico reports, "..some Clinton aides wondered openly if the Obama campaign was mocking Clinton's famous 3 a.m. ad". Such is the paranoia in the HRC camp that they feel that when "Asked why Clinton was never seriously considered, one Clinton aide responded with a single word: "Ego.""

Jenny Doggett, founder of counteveryvotecast.org, was quoted here as saying that "It's a big mistake not to choose her. It's sad and it's a sure way to guarantee the Republicans will win," because Obama didn't pick Hillary. Ms Dogget, who has urged Clinton to take her campaign to the convention floor, added: "Obama can't do this on his own. This ticket [Obama/Biden] isn't going to be able to compete and can't overcome the lack of unity. Only Hillary can bring them that."

This article also says that "Only about half [52%] of former Clinton voters say they'll back the Illinois senator." About a third are undecided and the rest [21%] plan to vote for Senator McCain.

The policies of HRC and BHO are very, very similar, so it is not that these votes will not go to Obama because of different priorities a President Obama will pursue. And it is not just sour grapes, either.

These supporters were themselves egotists, and only less than eight months ago, they didn't consider that anyone had the brain or balls to go past HRC. It takes one to spot one, and since their pride has sustained a fall, they are in no mood to forgive or forget.

They would rather vote for a 72 year old man with fading memory, confusing and contradictory messages, a near-perfect conservative voting record, who agreed with President Bush (proudly) 95% of the time.

This liberal stock is not concerned that the Arizona Senator considers a cut-off of $5 million for being rich, cannot remember how many houses he owns (between 7 - 11, but no one actually knows), and is tied to a $100 million fortune.

This feminist group is untroubled with the fact that he sought this fortune (by dating Cindy) while he was still married to a former swim wear model who did not meet his expectations on his return (she had lost her good looks due to a massive car accident while he was a POW in Vietnam).
This pro-choice crowd seems apathetic to the possibility that a President McCain could turn the balance of the Supreme Court to the right for the entire next generation. If Roe v. Wade gets overturned, they will surely moan: "If only Hillary was there".

This anti-war band of sisters seem to have no problem with voting for a man whose knee-jerk response to any international crisis is a military or otherwise belligerent response. With his thinking stuck in the Cold War era, McCain would help us build a bridge to the 20th century, and no the the late 20th, but going far into the 1950s.


Even the Clintons do not seem to have taken the defeat in stride. 

In a recent appearence, the Senator mentioned to Obama as "my opponent". She continued to say how much she has done for her "opponent" after she lost the race. In the end, it was all about her.
 
The former president, who had declared repeatedly that Hillary was ready to be President, could not bring himself to answer the 'readiness' question posed by an ABC reporter a fortnight ago. "You can argue", he said, "that no one is really ready to be the President". So much for a ringing endosement.

I think the supporters are just keying in to what the Clintons are implying; the tone is always set at the top.


Regardless of the result, two things are certain about this election. It will be a referendum on Obama, and will be the most dissected balloting ever. 

For the Clintons and their supporters, this will be the the day of reckoning. Unless they give Obama a full-throttled support, the Senator can kiss her chances of a 2012 run goodbye if Obama loses and the former President's legacy will be severly tarnished.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

The State of Pakistan

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Pakistan is emerging as a big headache for the US, more than Georgia in a sense. A recent article by Robert Tracinski, "What to Do About Pakistan", is rather interesting. I have also expressed similar sentiments in by blog article, "Hurry up to embrace India", a few days ago. Before that, I had given my opinion on the "Failing state of Pakistan".

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

The McCain Nation

Jerome Corsi, who Swift-boated John Kerry as co-author of "Unfit to Command" in 2004, is trying to do the same to Obama in his newly minted best seller, "The Obama Nation."

Corsi's writings have been repeatedly promoted by Sean Hannity on Fox News; Corsi's publisher, Mary Matalin, has praised her author's "scholarship." 
If Republican warriors like Hannity and Matalin think so highly of Corsi's research into Obama, then perhaps we should take seriously Corsi's scholarship about McCain.
 
In recent articles at worldnetdaily.com, Corsi has claimed (among other charges) that the McCain campaign received "strong" financial support from a "group tied to Al Qaeda" and that "McCain's personal fortune traces back to organized crime in Arizona."
 
His charges against Bush and Cheney go much further; he wants them impeached. Here's a video of his speech:




He has made other interesting comments, such as in a January 29, 2008,  interview with a conspiracy-minded radio host when Corsi said the US government wasn't telling the whole truth about what happened at the World Trade Center during 9/11. Corsi gives much credence to the claim by physicist Steven Jones who claims the towers exploded because of explosives inside the building.


"World Trade Center dust forms the iron sphere that can only be formed at extremely high temperatures," Corsi said, "jet fuel doesn't…The government's explanation of the jet fuel fire is not a sufficient explanation to explain the evidence of these spheres – these microscopic spheres – that Steven Jones has proved existed within the WTC dust." …

You can argue that...


After the tête–à–tête between the two candidates and Pastor Rick at the Saddleback megachurch last Saturday, I felt that Senator McCain has given the greatest performance of this electoral season; Obama had been too nuanced  and appeared less spirited in comparison.

Pastor Rick had stressed that even though the two Senators will be interviewed separately, and the latter would not be privy to the questions; he will be in a 'cone of silence'. Fair enough. 

On 'Meet the Press' last Sunday, Andrea Mitchell postulated that it was possible that Senator McCain could have overheard Obama, because he went before the presumptive Republican nominee. 

If this is true, 'my friends', it is we who got Saddlebacked.

Mitchell's statements drew an immediate response from McCain's Campaign. He wasn't even there, they claimed, but was enroute to the Church in a motorcade during the first half of the interview. Later, he was holed up in a greenroom at Saddleback, where there was no live [TV] feed.

Although the Campaign denies it, you can argue that Senator McCain could have:
  • heard the interview over the radio or even on TV on the limo he was traveling
  • been informed by SMS or email on his Blackberry in the car or in the greenroom. The SMS/email is possible because Lindsey  Graham and Cidy McCain were in the audience. Or they could have called McCain's cellphone and just left it on.

I don't know if any of this this happen, but it does cast doubt.

If true, it is intolerable, Agent Pastor Rick.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Who got Saddlebacked?

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An agent of intolerance (according to McCain 2000), the Evangelical preacher Rev. Rick Warren, got the two senators running for the presidency together, in a civil debate.
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McCain was more in his element than Obama; this has been McCain's best performance this election cycle. He was among his 'own' and the format was closer to the town-halls he does so well. He was humorous, witty and told stories. He shared almost all the values of the audience, who are the base of the Republican party.
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However, Obama appeared at ease in the southern California megachurch, a setting that played to his comfort level with openly discussing his faith. He quoted a Biblical proverb and spoke at length about his faith as a "source of strength and sustenance on a daily basis." "I know that I don't walk alone, and I know that if I can get myself out of the way, that I can maybe carry out in some small way what he intends," Obama said.
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Obama, for obvious reasons, held policy positions that were not the the liking of the attendees, though he displayed a connection to these conservative voters. He mentioned God twice during the discussion, and Jesus once; McCain, at no time.
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Obama carried the discussion more like a professor he was. He would answer directly to Pastor Warren, dissecting the logic. McCain on the other hand, would start to answer the Pastor and then turn to the crowd, pulling them in. His answers were more terse and succint than Obama's.
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McCain came out as more decisive. Whether you agreed with him or not, he was more direct and you knew where he stands (similar to George Bush). Obama gave more nuanced answers. He appeared more thoughtful and intellectual, agreeing to disagree and willing to give you regard and respect even if you disagreed with him.
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In a sense, the candidates reiterated their parties' stance; Republicans are more passionate on issues and see things in black and white; Democrats look for logical answers to questions and see the world in shades of gray. In that sense, the whole excercise was predictable, as niether candidate strayed from their basic positions.
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This was most evident when asked which Justices of the Supreme Court they would not have picked. Obama named Thomas, but also included Scalia and Roberts. McCain named all three of the remaining liberal justices, and also the off-again-on-again liberal, Justice Kennedy.
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There was some notable moments, though. When asked to define 'rich', Obama said that anyone making over $250,000 should be considered well-off; McCain's number was $5 million, but he quickly added: "I'm sure that comment will be distorted".
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The comment that will be 'distorted' for Obama will be his answer when Warren asked, "At what point does a baby get human rights?"; "Whether you are looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity, you know, is above my pay grade". This will be played over and over again in battleground states in the coming weeks.
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The audience of several hundred inside the auditorium offered polite and occasionally enthusiastic applause throughout the forum for Obama. It was more spirited for McCain, and at at one point during a commercial break, someone shouted an approval — "We love you, John" — of the sort more often heard at Obama events (and, McCain might add, teenybopper concerts).
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The stakes were high for both candidates. Obama wanted to show his comfort with speaking the language of these conservatives; McCain wanted to show that he is no longer the person (of 2000) they disdained.
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A June survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life showed 61 percent of evangelical voters supporting the Republican senator, with 25 percent preferring Obama, figures that align roughly with June 2004, when 69 percent backed Bush and 26 percent Kerry. (Bush ultimately took 78 percent of this vote, up 10 percentage points from 2000.)
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If Obama is more successful in convincing the Evangelicals that he is not such a bad guy after all, he may have them stay home, even if they don't want to vote for him. That would at least prevent the 10% increase Bush had in 2004 between June and November, or better yet, decrease the support from 61% that McCain enjoys now.

In addition, over 10% of Evangelicals are undecided this year; much more than in 2004. If Obama succeeds in either converting them or having them not go to the polls, it will be a big win for him.
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If there is one issue that drew attention at this forum was the direction of the Supreme Court. With the possibility of the next president nominating two, or maybe three, justices, the balance of this Court will defenitely shift, one way or the other, decisively. That may alone be the reason for the Republican base to show up at the polls in number, and McCain defenitely hopes so.