Sunday, August 17, 2008

Who got Saddlebacked?

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An agent of intolerance (according to McCain 2000), the Evangelical preacher Rev. Rick Warren, got the two senators running for the presidency together, in a civil debate.
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McCain was more in his element than Obama; this has been McCain's best performance this election cycle. He was among his 'own' and the format was closer to the town-halls he does so well. He was humorous, witty and told stories. He shared almost all the values of the audience, who are the base of the Republican party.
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However, Obama appeared at ease in the southern California megachurch, a setting that played to his comfort level with openly discussing his faith. He quoted a Biblical proverb and spoke at length about his faith as a "source of strength and sustenance on a daily basis." "I know that I don't walk alone, and I know that if I can get myself out of the way, that I can maybe carry out in some small way what he intends," Obama said.
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Obama, for obvious reasons, held policy positions that were not the the liking of the attendees, though he displayed a connection to these conservative voters. He mentioned God twice during the discussion, and Jesus once; McCain, at no time.
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Obama carried the discussion more like a professor he was. He would answer directly to Pastor Warren, dissecting the logic. McCain on the other hand, would start to answer the Pastor and then turn to the crowd, pulling them in. His answers were more terse and succint than Obama's.
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McCain came out as more decisive. Whether you agreed with him or not, he was more direct and you knew where he stands (similar to George Bush). Obama gave more nuanced answers. He appeared more thoughtful and intellectual, agreeing to disagree and willing to give you regard and respect even if you disagreed with him.
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In a sense, the candidates reiterated their parties' stance; Republicans are more passionate on issues and see things in black and white; Democrats look for logical answers to questions and see the world in shades of gray. In that sense, the whole excercise was predictable, as niether candidate strayed from their basic positions.
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This was most evident when asked which Justices of the Supreme Court they would not have picked. Obama named Thomas, but also included Scalia and Roberts. McCain named all three of the remaining liberal justices, and also the off-again-on-again liberal, Justice Kennedy.
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There was some notable moments, though. When asked to define 'rich', Obama said that anyone making over $250,000 should be considered well-off; McCain's number was $5 million, but he quickly added: "I'm sure that comment will be distorted".
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The comment that will be 'distorted' for Obama will be his answer when Warren asked, "At what point does a baby get human rights?"; "Whether you are looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity, you know, is above my pay grade". This will be played over and over again in battleground states in the coming weeks.
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The audience of several hundred inside the auditorium offered polite and occasionally enthusiastic applause throughout the forum for Obama. It was more spirited for McCain, and at at one point during a commercial break, someone shouted an approval — "We love you, John" — of the sort more often heard at Obama events (and, McCain might add, teenybopper concerts).
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The stakes were high for both candidates. Obama wanted to show his comfort with speaking the language of these conservatives; McCain wanted to show that he is no longer the person (of 2000) they disdained.
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A June survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life showed 61 percent of evangelical voters supporting the Republican senator, with 25 percent preferring Obama, figures that align roughly with June 2004, when 69 percent backed Bush and 26 percent Kerry. (Bush ultimately took 78 percent of this vote, up 10 percentage points from 2000.)
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If Obama is more successful in convincing the Evangelicals that he is not such a bad guy after all, he may have them stay home, even if they don't want to vote for him. That would at least prevent the 10% increase Bush had in 2004 between June and November, or better yet, decrease the support from 61% that McCain enjoys now.

In addition, over 10% of Evangelicals are undecided this year; much more than in 2004. If Obama succeeds in either converting them or having them not go to the polls, it will be a big win for him.
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If there is one issue that drew attention at this forum was the direction of the Supreme Court. With the possibility of the next president nominating two, or maybe three, justices, the balance of this Court will defenitely shift, one way or the other, decisively. That may alone be the reason for the Republican base to show up at the polls in number, and McCain defenitely hopes so.

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