Hurry up to embrace India

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The Cold War began almost as soon as the Second World War ended. The super-powers, USSR and USA, went over the map choosing countries to be their allies. Several of them wanted to stay away from this game, and a Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) was born; it's founding members were Nehru of India, Nasser of Egypt and Tito of the former Yugoslavia.

The membership was entirely of under-developed (read poor) countries, and they were called the 'third world', because they were, officially, neither with the US or the USSR. Over the course of time, the NAM developed a left-ward tilt, as it found policies of the USSR more accommodating than that of the US.

The USSR formed the 'Warsaw Pact', and the members were countries of Eastern Europe which constituted its sphere of influence; these states had Communist dictatorships. The West constituted the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), comprised of democracies of Western Europe, Canada and the US.

In the latter half of the 2oth century, the world was neatly divided into three blocks, though NAM was a bit left leaning with some of its members more so than others.

In South Asia, the major countries were India, a well-functioning democracy, and Pakistan, which had Army rule either directly or indirectly through a democratically elected government since its inception in 1947. For this reason, it was easier for the US policy makers to dictate to Pakistan and near impossible to do so to India.

And for this reason, India was in America's blind spot.

While India's democracy was not quite Jeffersonian, yet it was maturing, its democratic institutions being built and democratic infrastructure being laid. In addition, it was the least of the left leaning NAM countries.

However, during the late 60s and early 70s, the Nixon Administration was using Pakistan as a proxy to engage China, the foreign policy coup that was Kissinger's brainchild. Just like Pakistan is a front-line state in the 'War on Terror' today, it was a 'gateway' to China then. So when the hostilities between India and Pakistan were imminent in 1971, the US sent the Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal and threatened India.

With no other choice in a bipolar world, India fell into Russia's embrace, much to America's chagrin. Worse, India conducted a nuclear test in 1974. This further alienated the West, including the US and India went further into concert with the USSR.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall 1989, the Soviet Empire dissolved. The USSR broke into 15 independent states, its allies in Eastern Europe moved towards free-market capitalism and democracy, and Germany reuinited. Meanwhile, China started to enter the picture as a low-cost manufacturing hub, and in about 15 years, it has become the major creditor nation to the US.

In 1990, India shed its centralized economic model and moved towards free-market reforms. Instead of manufacturing, it became a low-cost center for business processing, around 2001.



So what it is that India offers to the US at this point in time?

Three words: location, location, location.

To its north is China. It is a regional power with a nuclear arsenal, and the only country besides Russia with ICBMs pointed towards USA. Besides it financial clout over us, it is investing heavily in modernizing its armed forces; this is making her neighbors around South China Sea very nervous. By 2025, it is slated to be the 2nd largest global economy, behind USA.

It is only a matter of time when the US and China clash over Taiwan, and shipping lanes in the far east come under China's command. China has, by now, so much enmeshed itself with the world economy that isolating it is not an option. We have to learn to live with it.

To the far north is Russia. With the invasion of Georgia, Russia has sent alarm bells ringing in Western capitals. For over a decade, the Bear has been written off, but now it is flexing its muscles and announcing its presence. A second Cold War is imminent, though it will be a bit more complicated this time around with more than two players on the stage.

To its west is Pakistan. Labeled as a 'failed state' before 9/11, it became a front-line state of the 'War on Terror', because it shared a border with Afghanistan, where the Taliban gave refuge to Osama bin Ladin. It was easier when it was under Army rule, but with the elections in February, and the possible impeachment of its erstwhile military dictator, new worries have emerged.

The Pakistani populace is anti-US, and there is a terrorist around every street corner. The newly elected government is finding it hard to administrate, and the writ of the state doesn't run in over half of the country. While the Bush administration hopes that with a newly elected democratic government, it will be like South Korea when military rulers Chun and Roh Tae-woo gave way to popular demands for democratic elections, and that nation is a successful democracy since then.

However, there are concerns that it could turn out like Iran, where the Shah had incurred the hatred of both Islamic radicals and secular democrats for running a corrupt and brutal regime. The United States was a target of resentment, too - much as it is in Pakistan - because of its unwavering support for the Shah.

In 1979, when massive demonstrations brought on Iran's moment of truth, the army declined to fire on the population. The Carter administration withdrew support from the Shah while offering him asylum, and a revolutionary regime took power.

Unfortunately, that regime still rules - with radical Shiite Islam and hatred for the United States as its guiding principles. It is now developing nuclear weapons and is aiding anti-U.S. and radical Islamic movements all over the Mideast.

Which future Pakistan will follow is up in the air. Nevertheless, it should be of acute concern because of its nuclear arsenal, like Iran; something South Korea did not have.

That's not all. A top CIA counterterrorism expert, Ted Gistaro, told a Washington gathering this week that al-Qaida "now has [in Pakistan] many of the operational and organizational advantages it once enjoyed across the border in Afghanistan" before 1981 and can use them to train terrorists for worldwide attacks.

Another country to India's north is Nepal, which has just elected a former Maoist as its Prime Minister. Nepal, along with Bangladesh and Burma, both to India's east and the latter a military dictatorship as well, are in China's sphere of influence.



In other words, India is the only viable and well-functioning democracy in this geopolitically important region. Its neighborhood is very important to the US, especially China, Russia and Pakistan. While China and Russia are stable nations, Pakistan could implode in the near future.

In addition, by 2025, its population will be almost the same as China (1.5 billion) and it will be the 3rd largest economy in the world.

Further, India has good terms with Iran and is respected in the volatile region of the Middle East. Countries, especially of the NAM, in Asia, Africa, and South America look up to it. India has more in common with most countries of the world than either the US or USSR, or other Western nations.

It has survived over 60 years as a thriving democracy where the elections are free and fair, the election commission is independent and the voter participation is greater than in the US. It has a free press and an independent, effective judiciary. There always has been a smooth transfer of power and the armed forces are under civilian control.

Yes, there is official corruption and the law and order situation can sometimes be sketchy, but as the middle-class is increasing in number and the population in general is getting more prosperous, this weakness of the Indian state is also being corrected. The good thing is that what you see is what you have, like in the US. There is no hiding of issues or sugar coating of problems. With over 300 languages and over 1000 dialects, it is a very diverse nation. Almost every religion is represented, even though it is a secular state by its Constitution.

In fact, it is more like US in many ways than any other country in the world.

This is why the US should embrace India in a hurry. And especially before a resurgent Russia panders to it in an effort to contain China, and the US.

But I do think Indians are crazy though. In a worldwide poll in 2007, the country where Bush was most popular was India; his popularity was in the low 70s. In the US, this was his percentace of unpopularity then. Go figure.