From Russia with Love

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On hearing that the Russians are ready to bomb the capital of Georgia, Bush responded: "Damn, I go out for a few days, and the Commies are seizing Atlanta."

But seriously, there has been a rather tepid response from the West as Russian tanks rolled into Georgia.

The MSM is busy covering the Olympics, the US presidential race and, most importantly, the Edwards saga (ad nauseum).

So while Russians grab land from a former satellite, the world barely notices, as if it has grown numb to such misadventures. At least there was a large hue and cry about Darfur, though nothing much came of it.

Since we have done something similar by invading Iraq, toppling Saddam and having a regime change, we are tongue-tied to call Russia on it. It will like the pot calling the kettle black, if we do. And Russia knows our handicap.

But our ambassador to the UN still manages to say that in the 21st century there is no place for a regime change by military action, but qualifies his statement: in Europe [emphasis mine].

Say that again, please? Are you implying that regime change is OK by military force in Asian, Middle Eastern and African countries?

But what actually can the US do to Russia, or any other country for that matter, if they invade others. After the unilateral invasion of Iraq, we are left with no moral authority, little powers of diplomatic persuasion, and almost no military regiments left to intervene.

Maybe Bush should look in Putin's eyes and talk to Vlad's soul.

But Sarkozy beat him to it. The President of France, in a meeting with Putin the Terrible, has chalked up a peace plan, that Russia and Georgia have agreed to follow.

So Putin, who had snubbed Bush's call for reversing his course of action, has agreed to listen to Sarkozy!

This is of paramount importance. As the tectonic plates of world power shift, and we are focused on an emerging China, a resurgent Russia and the tumultuous Middle East, France is quietly stepping up to be a power broker. It has always felt that it is a great nation and culture whose status has long been denied in an Anglophilic world.

As the US cedes its standing in the world, thanks to Bush, France is ready to step up to the plate. And France is no Canada, or even Germany. France is seen by the rest of the world as being a responsible, understanding power that is not arrogant like the US.

It's international rating got a boost when it chose to be a part of a coalition of the unwilling, when we were patching up a fig leaf to cover the invasion of Iraq. Yes, there were riots in Paris involving Arabs, but it has more say in the countries of Asia Minor than we do.

Whatever the actual facts are, the international perception is pro-French and anti-American at the moment. If we care about our place in the world-order, we should do something about it, and fast.

But Senator McCain wants to throw Russia out of the G-8, along with China even before the invasion of Georgia. Now, he is saber-rattling as if we have a few battalions to spare.

And that's not all. The Georgian government is supposed to be our ally whom we want to join the NATO. A few years ago in Tblisi, Bush promised that they would not travel alone in the difficult path of democracy they have chosen. Georgians were emboldened to have the only remaining superpower on their side, and stood up to Russia on this premise.

Other than letting the entire contingent of 2000 Georgian troops in Iraq (the 3rd largest in the coalition of the willing) go, there is nothing much we are willing or able to do.

Sorry Georgia, you will have to travel this treacherous road alone. We do wish you the best of luck, though. Our prayers are with you, even if our military backing isn't.

Finally, the most probable reason of why Russia is doing what it is, is because it can. It is also testing our response as that of the international community. While you won't see tanks on the streets of Belgrade quite yet, I won't quite rule them out in the capitals of other countries that form the Commonwealth of Independent States in the near future, if they behave like Georgia.

Russia has flexed its muscle.

It is rattling the cage and wants everyone to notice its presence. But why?

Essentially, Russia feels it has suffered a damage to its reputation after the fall of Communism.

Not only did the great Russian Empire dissolve, but the opening of a society that was tucked away from the outside word for about half a century did not provide a pretty sight. The glories of a classless society that its leaders sung were exposed to be false. In fact, except for their space program and military power, Russia was literally a third world country, or worse. Even developing counties like India were far ahead in non-military, non-space ventures.

In addition, its sphere of influence severely contracted. Countries like Poland and Hungary became decentralized free markets. The Berlin wall fell and East Germany reunited with the West to become the German fatherland once again. There was trouble in the Balkans, and the Yugoslavia of Marshall Tito broke violently into three states. Czechoslovakia also divided itself into two, but in a velvet revolution.

To make matters worse for Russia, the Baltic nations joined NATO, as did countries like Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. This added insult to injury, because the West was now right at Russia's door.

Further, the genie erupted as soon the bottle was opened. There was a rush to move Russia into a capitalistic market system under the guise of democracy. When this happened, Russia had no institutions of democracy or capitalism. It is easier to enforce democracy and prop it up than have the 'invisible hand' play where there was none.

So corruption ensued. A few people made millions and billions, while millions lost their savings and jobs. Inflation grew at a rapid rate, especially affecting the elderly and the retired who lived on a fixed income. The promise of care from cradle to grave was no more; that baby was thrown out with the bathwater.

The success of the very few and the plight of the many was so great that there had to be a change. Most Russians felt bare without the protection of state sponsorship. Many had not known anything else.

So, change ensued. Only after a decade or so of a free-wheeling market experiment, it was brought in check by Putin & Company. We cannot allow a few parasites suck the blood of the many, was their battle-song. The free-market capitalism so desired by the West, suffered.

Russia, with its rich oil and natural gas reserves, had a few tycoons who got rich trading oil at the expense of the rest within a few years. They literally acted like robber-barons of the 18th century West. So the first thing Putin did was to bring this and other newly emerging oligarchies under state control. As energy prices climbed, Russia, once in a huge debt to the West, found itself flush with foreign exchange reserves.

So what the free-market couldn't do for Russia, a central re-control did, or so it seemed. The vox populi rose in support of Putin and did not mind that even though they had a democracy now, they sacrificed certain individual rights. Who cares for the freedom of the press if there is financial and social stability.

(Now this is something we are very familiar with. In the name of security, and thus social stability, the Bush administration has virtually thrown the Constitution out of the window, despite we being the greatest democracy on earth; one of only countries with a Bill of Rights.)

Putin is a neo-communist, and quite a good one. The assimilation of capitalism and communism in China has not escaped his notice. He is no ideologue; the only dogma he subscribes to is control. In a sense, he is not much different that American neo-conservatives who want to extend US influence by forcing values they feel should be emulated at any cost.

That is why Russia is in Georgia.

It wants the world to know that it is once again the 800-pound gorilla that it was, and only better. It wants to avenge its humiliation. It wants to show everyone, especially the US, that it can be perturbed only at peril.

It is sad that under Bush, we proved to be very inept at being a sole superpower unable to handle a unipolar world. So in the near future, we will have a multipolar world, where countries like France and Russia will exert their influence. And don't forget China and India; they will be the second and third largest economies in the world in the next two decades.

I don't know if the blame of the Russian excursion and the French tip-toe to the podium can be put squarely at the feet of the Bush administration, but it certainly is at fault for letting such events happen.

And because of our own misadventure in Iraq, we cannot talk the talk or walk the walk.