Obma's glass ceiling

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The latest Gallup national daily tracking poll shows that Obama has a 9 point lead over McCain, 49% to 40%. This is being attributed to his overseas trip bounce.

However, other polls show McCain closing the gap in battleground states like Colorado and Minnesota, and coming within a couple points, the margin of error.

The RealClearPolitics (RCP) Average gives Obama a 5 point lead (46% to 41%) even though its generic party average gives the Democrats an 11 point lead (50% to 39%).

The President's approval rating has been as low as 16%, the economy is in shatters, the Iraq war is draining our resources, and there are now more deaths of our soldiers in Afghanistan where Taliban is resurgent.

Almost everyone agrees that the Republican brand is damaged this election cycle. No matter who the president is, McCain or Obama, he will have a Democratic legislature. The GOP is trying to prevent the Democrats from having a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Obama is a young, charismatic, and knowledgeable guy. He has run a tight, disciplined campaign and has stayed on message. There were no major gaffes in his trip to West Asia, Middle East and Europe; he looked every bit Presidential and Commander-in-Chiefy.

On the main emerging issue of this election year, the pocketbook, polls show that voters trust him by a wide margin over McCain, as they would any Democrat on economy.

McCain, by contrast, is old and wooden guy who often rewrites history. His campaign is disorganized and lacks a coherent message. He has committed major gaffes, errors and mistakes; he has gone so far as to define his opponent as being a traitor.

Once a maverick and proud of his independent streak, he has, since he started his run for presidency and even in the past several weeks, changed his position to be palatable to his far-right base - the bloc he despised throughout his career in politics.

Not that Obama has not changed his positions, but his revisions have been more nuanced and a sprint to the center. McCain is trending even further right that the center-right positions he has traditionally held, a move that may cost him important vote of the independents.

McCain's only claim to fame seems to be his lofty, selfless and admirable service to the country where he was imprisoned by the enemy and his decision to support the escalation of our engagement in Iraq: the 'Surge'. Recently, he has expanded the definition of 'Surge', but that remains the central part of his campaign. Like for Rudy Giuliani it was "9/11, 9/11, 9/11", "Surge, Surge, Surge" seems to be the battle cry for McCain.

He has been candid about his unfamiliarity with the economy and relies on advisors like Phil 'nation of whiners' Gramm. His only solution to the present oil crisis is more drilling which even T. Boone Pickens, his supporter and the financier of the 'Swift-Boat' ads, doesn't buy.

To make matters worse for McCain, it appears that Obama has been shaping the foreign policy issues lately, and even President Bush is making moves that are in line with positions Obama has held on Iraq, Iran and Syria. Adm. Mike Mullen, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Robert Gates, Defense Secretary, have called for an increase in troop levels in Afghanistan by at least 2 brigades.



Obama, in the Year of the Democrat, should be leading Mccain by double digits. There seems to be a glass-ceiling of 50% which Obama cannot break.

Why is it so?

This is the question that 'all the king's horses and all the king's men' have been wondering aloud, but there seems to be no easy answer.

In his column in the Chicago Sun-Times today, Robert Novak feels that "Obama's difficulty in reaching the 50 percent mark reflects an overwhelmingly white undecided vote at 10 to 15 percent". He thinks that "Clearly, Obama has not yet closed the deal with the people to accept a young, inexperienced African-American as their president".

Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post commented on the Chris Matthews Show (Fox) yesterday that this has to do with Obama's race; it is quite a change to see a person of mixed lineage being the contender for the highest office in the land.

Race has become a non-PC topic. People are uncomfortable to talk about it; it would rather go away. In the spectrum of political incorrectness, it is safer to be seen as a sexist than a racist.

So have we come up with new code words? Are young, inexperienced and unfamiliar among them? How about 'voters discomfort with a person with an 'exotic' name'?

Is Obama going to suffer the fate of Willie Brown, who lost his election twice after polls were in favor of him both times?

It is still 99 days to Election Day. No matter what happens, I don't think I will see a more riveting election season in my lifetime.